Dial Square's 2012-13 Thread

[DialSquares]

i guess i'll keep it in one thread to keep everything near the top...looks like the EURO bandwagoners have went back to baseball or whatever other sport people bet....

Champions Leauge
BATE Borisov v Vardar
under 3 goals -130 - 1.30 to win 1 unit
i guess the idea is BATE will destroy Varder because BATE is a genuine 2nd tier Europe club. I think they win but more likely 1-0 or 2-0. Perhaps 3-0 and a push but hard to see 4 goals. In their domestic league, BATE played two games where more then 3 goals were scored. Those games were the first one vs Belshina (3-1) and a recent home game losing 1-3 to Din Minsk. In the CL only 1 home match was an over and that was 0-5 to Barcelona. Macedonia footy isn't very competitive with Shkendija couldn't beat Portadown and Metalurg S losing out to Malta's Birkirkara. BATE won't feat the trip to Skopje so i see an easy 2-0 home win and perhaps 0-0 away and move on. I wouldn't bet under 2.5 though.

AEL Limassol v Linfield FC
Limassol -2 -131 -1.31 to win 1 unit
I don't know in Limassol will be the next APOEL with a CL super run but i do know that Northern Ireland domestic football is brutal. In their first round Linfield only managed two 0-0 scores vs a team from the Faroe Islands. The last two CL seasons Linfield lost to both BATE and Copehagen 2-0 on the road. Three years back Glentoran played and lost 10-0 on aggregate to Haifa. 6-0 home win i think for Haifa...maybe not so high today. There is always advantages for Cyprus teams at home and I just think Linfield far too poor to compete with a professional team.

Norway - 1st Division
Ullensaker/Kisa vs. Ham-Kam
over 3 goals -110 - 1.10 to win 1 unit
hard not to take Ham-Kam overs esp on the road where they have 4 overs in 5 matches and several 5+ goal games. Ull also have 4 overs in 5 home matches (2.5 goals) but more often the 3 goals and not 4+ so perhaps ham-kam can push the total over.

 

[DialSquares]

no one told me vardar was going to score twice...bets done

 

[DialSquares]

2-2 so far with the cl game in the other thread..i'll figure the juice today.

Friday July 20th
Ireland Premier League
Shamrock Rovers v Bray
over 3 goals +110 - 0.90 to win 1 unit
to be honest this is kinda like the over 11 in baseball where the line itself is reason enough to bet it. I haven't checked daily the irish lines but i don't remember ever seeing the over 3 so low. H2H 4 over 3 goals in 7 but 3 unders all 1-0 0-1 games. Both sides hitting overs frequently this year - Shamrock 61% and Bray 72% over 2.5s. Stats look better if bray were at home and shamrock on the road but still signs there will be goals here. Shamrock played on tuesday so perhaps a bit tired and hopefully will lead to at least 1 bray goal.

 

[DialSquares]

i guess we are officially losing RVP. Perhaps we can take the money and sign a true striker or a real defendor and not guys like Murdersacker and Koscielny. If Wilshire is fit and someone like Park Chu-Young or even Sir Alex Chamberlain steps up we will still be okay. Guaranteed to finish ahead of Liverpool and Tottenham. Perhaps hoping for 4th this year though - maybe we can win the carling er....Capitol One Cup this year.

Long season ahead - i just hope we make it out of the group stages of CL and maybe get a CL spot for next year...if city signs RVP they will figure out, like Adebayor and Henri, they aren't superstars they just play in a 'feed the wannabe superstar' style. And as a Citeh player (and Dutchman) it will be clear he was overpayed, overhyped and no longer my twitter followinger.

GL this year cocktail and city fans...going to be frustrating watching RVP all season long.

 

[scarab]

i just hope this does not drag on like last year's transfer business (anywhere but city please). I like our signing so far but still need few more players

 

[DialSquares]

i hate the media saying transfer is happening soon and a week goes by with no change. And all these midfielders keep getting mentioned and that's the only position we do not need help with. It would be so silly to sign M'villa or Cazorla if Diaby and Wilshire can play soon....let's dumb RVP and sign a true striker and not named Henri either. But nice to see another Canadian Arsenal fan on here...City and United beat us up pretty bad here during the year...

looks like the women are playing the olympic soccer already...i wouldn't trust the USA vs France as that can easily be a draw.

Women's Olympics
Japan v Canada
over 2, 2.5 goals -127 - 1.27 to win 1 unit
I would not underestimate Canada here at the olympics..they have a lot to prove after the WC and with Sweden in the group both these sides know they will need to win. Canada probably have a foot in height difference and have quality (women soccer quality

) and the world's best player. I expect us to score at least 1 and perhaps 1-1 in the end but both sides might go right from the start. Someone wins 2-1 imo and hopefully the Canucks.

Champions League
Helsingborg v TNS
under 3 goals +108 - 0.92 to win 1 unit
The New Saints only shot at advancing will be the play super tight and hope for a 0-0 game. Even if Helinsingborg scores early i doubt they will change their style...they just have to hope for a free kick or corner to find the net. In the end i do not see TNS scoring so Helsing would need 4+ to ruin the under 3. With a rather slow start to the Swedish I season (7-7-2) and playing a bottom feeder on the weekend I think helsingborg would be happy with a 2-0 home win and move on.

Dinamo Zagreb v Ludogorets Razgrad
Dinamo -0.75 -114 -1.14 to win 1 unit
i love the 1-1 coming home matches...Zagreb will be a whole different team at home with the crazies in the stands. I like Bulgarian football but it is still below Croatia and it could be tough for them in Zagreb. I think Dinamo played quite poorly but that late goal rescued the game.

2-3 so far this betting year which is suppose to begin in august....maybe i am figuring out why this month GL

 

[DialSquares]

some major crap happened in Zagreb tonight...2-2 and with 5 mins of extra - the ref allowed almost 8. Razgrad were delaying a bit but not enough to allow that. Zagreb passed it to the keeper in the 8th min and perfect time to blow the whistle but no....of course Zagreb is the bigger name and being eastern euro trash football you have to wonder. Good for my bet but Zagreb don't deserve it.

Sometimes you have to wonder why bet footy when this happens

 

[DialSquares]

you will be hard pressed to find a guy that dislikes EUROPA more than me but i took a look at a couple of games and decided to play a few. No reasoning today as i am leaving shortly and probably wont be back prior to early kickoffs. If the earlies hit i like a couple more...no olympic games today ... odds are short in some games and too hard to really predict in the others.

EUROPA
Dila Gori v AGF Aarhus
Aarhus pk -138 - 1.38 to win 1 unit

Ordabasy Shymkent v Rosenborg
Rosenberg -129 -1.29 to win 1 unit

KuPs v Maccabi Netanya
over 2.5 goals -125 - 1.25 to win 1 unit

 

[rolltide]

Sometimes you have to wonder why bet footy when this happens

i've read The Fix a few times and now never bet more than $100 on euro matches especially when it involves eastern euro clubs. look at that result with rosenborg yesterday... much richer team with poor 2-2 home result goes on road and it's 1-1 with RBK down to 9 men. Kazahks miss a penalty that would have assured them going through and then 9-man RBK score in 94th to advance.

Gomel match smells as well ...

lineups for today's friendly:

Arsenal: Fabianski, Jenkinson, Bartley, Vermaelen, Gibbs, Song, Arteta, Diaby, Santos, Walcott, Gervinho.

Manchester City: Pantilimon, Savic, Kompany, Kolo Toure, Kolarov, Zabalata, Biton, Yaya Toure, Razak, Aguero, Tevez.

 

[DialSquares]

That's almost our first team now minus Podolski and sagna in sept. Maybe Alex Chamberlain instead of gervinho too. Pretty poor for a supposed top 3-4 club. I tend to skip friendly betting but looking for the match online right now. Citeh definitely missing some guys so perhaps we can win here. About 23 days to go before EPL and i see French II today so soon we can bet with a better chance to hit

but yes definitely some late goal drama that eastern euro footy provides. Funny that i was on both rosenberg and zagreb side so no complaints - it would be hard to cheer for a club out there. I imagine Rosenberg ml must have been +2500 or +5000 with little time left. Wouldnt take a big bet to win lots of money. Gotta wonder because it is eastern euro...

 

[rolltide]

yep and Renova went off at almost +1700 for away win to Gomel after losing 0-2 at home. Of course the perfect result is Renova 1-0 away win and everyone on pitch is rich and happy as Gomel advances and all the players get paid. Uefa coefficients for those two leagues were #19 vs #41 which is more than doubtful to happen that the #41 boys pull the upset. The YB/Chisinau result was similarly ridiculous. Moldova had a .500 coefficient last year (only 3 nations worse in all of europe...Andorra, Estonia, San Marino) and they take down the Swiss club with the 13th best coefficient of 2011/12 ....

and these games always involve an Eastern Euro club it's never a Belgian team playing a Norwegian team or Portugal/Ireland, etc

wow do Arsenal look awful

 

[DialSquares]

yes on both parts. Even when teams get caught and charged it doesn't stop others. The only western nation that seems caught in scandal is the Italians. I read somewhere 'first offside' 'first free kick' 'first corner' bets were suspicious in england at one time but that fizzled out. You have to wonder if first offsides happen though because usually they look pretty awful. Who knows...i just bet ml and totals to avoid anything like that. But if a team knows it won't advance far into EUROPA but are favoured vs a poorer nation why not take the money i guess. They could probably make more betting against themselves then their yearly salary. I even read the 3rd keeper for Gori was arrested for shoplifting in Denmark.

Arsenal itself were very poor. The double post by Chamberlain was a piss off...city has played more so i'm not too concerned. For me it's top 4 and hopefully get out of the group stages of CL...that will be a winning year...maybe a semi in the carling cup...do we have any youngsters left?

Friday July 27th
Austria Erst Klause aks Austria II
FC Lustenau v SKN St. Polten
over 3 goals +111 -0.90 to win 1 unit
last 4 h2h in lustenau all over 2.5 goals with 3 out of 4 hitting 4 goals. Both sides played overs in their first leauge match of the year. Polten not a great over club last season but Lustenau 12 overs in 18 home matches last year. Round 1 saw 100% over 2.5s and 80% over 3.5 so perhaps if things even out it might be an under day. But usually this league is over friendly until the weather turns.

Sweden - Allsvenskan
Aatvidaberg v Orebro
Aatvidaberg -137
Aat. with some nice home wins of late including 2-0 to AIK and 5-1 to Elfsborg. Hard to see them slip up at home vs bottom Orebro. Orebro 1-2-5 on the road beating equally poor GAIS and drawing IFK and Mjallby early in the season. Like a lot of promotion sides, Aatvidaberg are a good home side. So far, Aat 6-2 at home outscoring opponents 20:8 and 4 straight home wins. I am not sure they can keep this form but should win this one.

just don't like any other matches today so 2 picks. GL

 

[DialSquares]

Szczesny 'we’re confident we can fight for the trophies more than we did last year.'...haha...considering we barely competed for any trophies last year I guess he is right. But we signed guys that cannot even start the year...nice job Arsene. RVP will be our Tevez I guess...maybe 2 weeks in he will practice with Ajax in the Netherlands...what a mess. EUROPA here we come.

i think kiev covers the -1 today in the CL but not enough to bet. And Canada might pull the shocker at 9:30EST.

 

[DialSquares]

July Record: 5-7-1 -3.7 units

not the start i wanted...not brutal though i guess.

Wednesday August 1st
Champions League
Kiryat Shmone v Neftchi Baku
Shmone -0.75 -135 - 1.35 to win 1 unit
very impressive 2-0 home win vs zilina for shmone. Zilina (Slovakia) must rank higher than Neftchi Baku from Azerbaijan. Shmone haven't played in Europe for awhile but were very impressive at home last year in the Israeli Premier League. Shmone will no doubt want a multi-goal win to take to Azerbaijan. Strong defense and it should be very hard for Baku to score...1-0 2-0 type game.

Molde v Basel
under 2.5, 3.0 -106 - 1.06 to win 1 unit
Basel should play much like they did on the road vs Flora....the goal being to keep Molde off the scoreboard and perhaps take a 0-1 0-2 lead to Switzerland. Both clubs are overish in their own leagues but that doesn't always carry over to europe. Very early in the Swiss league but pretty big game vs FC Sion for Basel. Perhaps that could play a very small factor late in the game. Perhaps not known for defense i do think basel will sit back and perhaps draw here 0-0 1-1 and work on winning the tie at home.

AEL Limassol v Partizan Belgrade
over 2 goals -114 -1.14 to win 1 unit
in cyrpus over bets always dangerous but to me Partizan just cannot play under 2 goal games. Perhaps Valetta isn't a far comparision to AEL but both those games were high scoring. If you look back at Partizan in qualifying there are not too many 0-0 0-1 1-0 games. Obviously it will be tough with AEL but they will certainly need to score here but in the end might not be strong enough to win...to me this is 1-1 but i could see 3 goals with a 2-1 winner for someone. Stretching a bit with this bet but not really liking anything else.

 

[DialSquares]

i don't bet week one in games because there are always surprised results but very excited to see German II football back....after 3-4 weeks that leagues gets very predictible and we should have another great year...just wish i only bet german II..haha..

Friday August 3rd
Austria Erst Klause aka Austria II
Grodig v Horn
Grodig -0.5 and -1 -114 - 1.14 to win 1 unit
Nice 3-0 home win vs FC lustenau and now play promotional Horn. Horn scoring like mad and can certainly keep up with Grodig but Altach did beat them and a draw vs KSV. Horn did lose to a Regionalliga Centre team on the road in the Cup match but priority might not have been with the cup for horn. Still another road lost to start the year....too early in the year to know stats but still good shot for the home side.

Austria Lustenau v Altach
over 2.5, 3.0 goals -103 - 1.03 to win 1 unit
last 3 H2H in Lustenau have been over (2.5) and 5 of the last 8. Two unders were 2-0 0-2 games. Lustenau's lone home game was a 5-0 win and Altach 3-4 road win..both hitting 50% overs in two matches. Still early to tell but both sides have goals in them. Last season A Lust. was a much better road over team but did manage 50-50 O/U at home. Altach 11 overs in 18 road matches last season. Both sides will be thinking promotion this year so big game early on .... tend to be 1-1 scores but h2h makes me think we will see at least 3 goals and hopefully 4+

Women's Olympics
Great Britain v Canada
over 2, 2.5 goals -114 - 1.14 to win 1 unit
if I wasn't Canadian I probably wouldn't be so nice but i also would be betting for GB. Hard to see us getting anything here as GB is proving to be one the best teams in the Olympics and Canada tends to get outclassed by top teams. I though a draw vs Sweden was a great result but it was proven that Sweden was actually a weaker side losing to France this morning. GB key players are Arsenal ladies so GB winning wouldn't be so bad. I went with goals despite GB solid defense and 1-0 wins. Canada is a side, unlike many, that won't settle for 1-0 defeats - which means they might conceed 2-3 on their own via counterattacks and pushing too many forward. Yet Canada with Sinclair and Tancredi have shown they can score and GB might finally face an opponent that can play physical. In the end GB wins in 90 mins....either a 3-0 4-0 crushing or a hard faught 2-0 2-1 game. Hopefully Canada can get one goal to help the bet and maybe make the game interesting...

ps i am in favour of gay marriage but not men's trampoline.

Overall Record 7-8-1 -2.84 units
August: 2-1 +0.86 units

 

[DialSquares]

how do you not score up 3 men vs a newly promoted side at home? down 2-0 i had no hope but up 3 men with 25 mins + stoppage i thought there was a chance..very frustrating.

 

[DialSquares]

Sunday August 5th
Norway Trippeligaen
Odd Grenland v Viking
over 2.5, 3.0 +100 -1.00 to win 1 unit
5 straight league matched h2h in Skien have seen at least 3 goals scored and Odd is certainly a team that doesn't mind the wide open play. Odd 6 overs in 8 home matched - Viking just 5 over in 9 but 5 of their last 6 league matches have been over (1-1 the lone under). Odd needs a nice home win but hard to keep a clean sheet. 3-1 home side

Sandnes Ulf v Lillestrom
Lillestrom pk +108 - 0.93 to win 1 unit
surprised lillestrom isn't the slight favourite here. Sadnes with just 1 win in 9 - it was on the road vs lillestrom so perhaps being favoured is justified. Lillestrom playing much better winning 2 and drawing 2 in 4. Draws vs Rosenberg and Molde quite impressive considering those are the 2nd and 3rd place sides. Lille 2-3-3 on the road which isn't so bad - two losses to Odd and Molde early in the year. Lille just 2 losses in 9 matches and need to keep getting results to move away from the relegation zone.

Finland - Veikkausliiga
KuPS v Honka
Honka pk -133 - 1.33 to win 1 unit
Honka have owned KuPS over the years - 5 straight H2h road wins for honka and most by 2+ goals. KuPS will be travelling to Turkey to play a 2nd leg match vs Bursaspor trailing 1-0. I don't think they will focus too much on the match as they have little chance but they did play Thursday in what must have been a tough battle...i didn't see it or highlights. Honka not very good on the road so far but recent results were a win vs JJK and drawing MyPa. Honka can move within 2 points of a EUROPA spot with a win. Good H2H history, more fit side and playing pretty well...all signs point to Honka win or at least a draw.
-----------
Overall Record 7-11-1 -5.68 units
August: 2-4 -1.98 units

 

[DialSquares]

Monday August 6th
i do think USA will dominate us today....we kinda have been taking it to teams but against USA i know we are going to sit back and hope for corners and free kicks - we will be booting the ball back to centre half a million times today and USA wins 3-0 2-0 .. whatever.

Sweden - Allsvenskan
GIF Sundsvall v Djurgarden
under 2.5 goals -128 - 1.28 to win 1 unit
h2h in sundsvall 3 straight unders but haven't played since 2008 and 3 matches since 2004 - so maybe useless stat. But Djurgarden hitting just 29% overs (5 overs in 17 matches). Sunds. 47% under with 5 overs in 8 home matches. Djurgarden with 11 draws in 17 matches...cerainly draw chance is huge here and i doubt 2-2 3-3 so going with under 2.5 and hopefully 0-0 1-1

IFK Norrkoping FK v IFK Goteborg
over 2.5 goals -117 - 1.17 to win 1 unit
another draw chance but last 2 h2h in norrkoping have been 2-2 scores. Norrk. 6 overs in 8 home matches - Goteberg 50/50 O/U on the road so far. A lot of 1-1 scores for both sides so perhaps smart to cover the bet with FT score 1-1...but i know that isn't always available. Hopefully an early 1-2 2-1 score.
---i would say if you took all 3 Sweden I draws you'd have a good shot at money...odds certainly suggest it.

can't find a third so two for now...perhaps a bet will come to me in the Canada v USA match.

 

[MadPicker]

why no bet on the US women?

 

[DialSquares]

i don't bet against my club or country...speaking of the game I've followed soccer for 20 years and I cannot recall a free kick given inside the box for delay of the game. Keepers get yellow card for delaying the game but never NEVER have i seen an actually free kick awarded. Canada played one of the best matches in women's soccer and this ref gave it away imo.....you can't beat the mighty USA when shit like that happens. Fitting the match was played an old Trafford where the favoured team gets all these kind of breaks....3 mins of extra time was laughible in the second OT...15 min half with three mins of magical stoppage time.

Perhaps without the BS calls USA still could have tied and won it on penalities...but such a great game ruined by a ref wanting to be remember more than the game....i usually cheer for USA after Canada - but let's go JAPAN!....